Delphi Method

The Delphi method is a systematic, interactive forecasting method which relies on a panel of experts. The experts answer questionnaires in two or more rounds. After each round, a facilitator provides an anonymous summary of the experts’ forecasts from the previous round as well as the reasons they provided for their judgments. Thus, experts are encouraged to revise their earlier answers in light of the replies of other members of their panel. It is believed that during this process the range of the answers will decrease and the group will converge towards the “correct” answer. Finally, the process is stopped after a pre-defined stop criterion (e.g. number of rounds, achievement of consensus, stability of results) and the mean or median scores of the final rounds determine the results

The typical features of Delphi method

(1)Take advantage of the experience and knowledge of experts.

(2)Use a nickname to make every expert could judge buy themselves independently.

(3)several feedback of prediction proccedure to make the advice of expert become same.

Delphi method make it become a effective judging and prediction method.

The specific steps of Delphi Method

1. The composition of the Panel of Experts. In accordance with the scope of subject knowledge required to identify experts. How much the number of experts, can predict the size of the subject and be involved in surface width, generally not more than 20 people.

2. To all the experts to predict the problems and requirements, together with all relevant background material to this issue, and invited experts need anything material. Then, make a written reply from the experts

3. All experts, based on the material they received, the views put forward its own forecasts, and shows how they are made use of these materials and predicted value.

4. To the experts to determine the views of the first summary, are outlined in charts, comparison, and then distributed to the experts, for experts to compare their different views with others, modify their opinions and judgments. Can also be finishing the views of the experts, or ask other experts as to comment more, and then to have them re-sent to the experts so that they refer to later modify their views.

5. To all the experts of the amendments to collect, aggregate, re-circulated to the experts to do the second amendment. Round by round for the experts to collect opinions and feedback are key elements of the Delphi method. Collect views and feedback are generally three to four rounds. Feedback to the experts at the time, only to give a variety of views, but does not indicate various opinions of experts issued a specific name. This process is repeated until every expert not change their views so far.

6. For a comprehensive treatment experts.

Advantage and disadvantage of Delphi method

The generally metod of Delphi is to call on the experts to have a meeting.Through discussing to get a according prediction suggestions.Delphi method could present the advantage of expert meeting:

1.It could present all the expert ability,brainstorm,more accurately.

2.It could express all the different suggestions among the experts.Get the best and reduce the worse.

Meanwhile,Delphi method could avoid the disvantage of  Expert Meeting Law

1.The opinions of Authority could influence others’ opinions.

2.Some experts would not express the different opinions due to friendships or other.

3.Some experts would not be willing to modify their imcompleted opinions due to their self-respect.

The mainly disvantage of Delphi method is more complicated and cost more time.